Somaliland Forum

Hargeysa/Addis Ababa/Brussels, 23 May 2006: The dispute between Somaliland and Somalia will become an ever-increasing source of friction, and possibly violence, unless the African Union (AU) engages in preventive diplomacy.

Somaliland: Time for African Union Leadership,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as it marks fifteen years since it proclaimed independence from Somalia. If Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expands its authority across the shattered country, the dispute over Somaliland’s status is likely to become an ever-increasing source of friction. Somaliland has reacted angrily to the TFG’s calls for the UN arms embargo on Somalia to be lifted so it could arm itself and has threatened to increase its own military strength if this happens.

“For both sides, the issue of recognition is not merely political or legal – it is existential”, says John Norris, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Executive. “Most southern Somalis are viscerally attached to the notion of a united Somalia, while many Somalilanders – scarred by the experience of civil war, flight and exile – refer to unity only in the past tense”.

In December 2005, President Dahir Rayale Kahin submitted Somaliland’s application for membership in the AU. The claim to statehood hinges on the territory’s separate status during the colonial era from the rest of what became Somalia and its existence as a sovereign state for a brief period following independence from Great Britain in June 1960. Having voluntarily entered a union with Somalia in pursuit of the irredentist dream of Greater Somalia (including parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti), it now seeks recognition within the borders received at that moment of independence.

Resolving Somaliland’s status is by no means a straightforward proposition. There are four central and practical questions that should be addressed. Should Somaliland be rewarded for creating stability and democratic governance out of a part of the chaos that is the failed state of Somalia? Would rewarding Somaliland with either independence or significant autonomy adversely impact the prospects for peace in Somalia or lead to territorial clashes? What are the prospects for peaceful preservation of a unified Somali Republic? What would be the implications of recognition of Somaliland for separatist conflicts elsewhere on the continent?

The AU should appoint a Special Envoy to consult with all relevant parties and report on the legal, security and political dimensions of the dispute and offer options for solutions within six months. Its Peace and Security Council should organise an informal consultation round with eminent scholars, political analysts and legal experts. Pending final resolution of the dispute, Somaliland should be granted interim observer status at the AU.

“This dispute has gone beyond the stage where we can ignore it or wish it away”, says Suliman Baldo, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director. “The challenge to the AU is not whether it should become engaged, but how”.